Insights from the International Association of Maritime Economist (IAME) 2025
Kris represented AUTOFLEX at the IMAE and presented his findings. Here are some thoughts that Kris would like to share after discussing on stage. His
Identifying Areas and Applications for the Modal Shift
Despite years of political ambitions and strategic efforts to push freight transport away from roads and onto more sustainable modes like rail and inland waterways, the much-anticipated modal shift remains largely absent in real-world statistics. So why are we not seeing the change many had hoped for? According to recent AUTOFLEX research, part of the answer may lie in the unintended consequences of shipping industry dynamics. Particularly the rise of mega-ships and the economic model that favours them. As vessels have grown dramatically in size, major ports have raced to accommodate them by investing in deeper channels, taller cranes, longer quay walls, and expanded storage space. This focus on scaling up has led to a two-tiered port system: large ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp continue to thrive, while small to medium-sized ports, both inland and coastal, struggle to keep up or even shut down entirely. This shift has consequences for cargo owners. With fewer operational small-to-medium ports (SMPs) and inland terminals, many find themselves with limited choices. They can either relocate their facilities closer to the mega-hubs or rely on road transport to move goods over longer distances to reach these hubs. In many cases, the latter is the only feasible option, solidifying the dominance of trucks in the logistics chain. What’s more, the flexibility and door-to-door convenience of road transport continue to outmatch the offerings of inland waterway systems, which often lack similar adaptability. As a result, while the hub in the hub-and-spoke model is served by large ocean-going vessels, the spoke increasingly falls to trucks rather than smaller feeder ships or barges. Research into these patterns is ongoing. But for now, the combined effects of port centralisation, mega-ship economics, and the unmatched convenience of road haulage continue to stall the modal shift, despite best intentions. A recent paper submitted, yet to be published, to the ICMASS conference in Hamburg delves into these issues. Projects like AUTOFLEX or SEAMLESS are actively exploring ways to make inland shipping more competitive and flexible.
The Big Potential of Small, Flexible Vessels
As the logistic industry searches for sustainable alternatives to road transport, one promising yet often overlooked solution lies in autonomous small and flexible vessels: CEMT Class II inland ships or smaller. AUTOFLEX is turning the spotlight on these vessels, revealing their potential in the context of modern logistics. One major advantage is their potential to enable just-in-time transport. Unlike larger inland vessels, i.e. CEMT V and bigger, which often have to wait in so-called “barge waiting areas” for enough cargo to accumulate before making a trip worthwhile, CEMT II ships can operate efficiently at much lower volumes. This reduces turnaround times and increases flexibility. Two attributes that are vital in today’s demand-driven supply chains. Their smaller size also means that these vessels can access a wider range of inland ports. This opens up opportunities for revitalising smaller ports and decentralising freight networks. Therefore, making it possible to shift more of the “spoke” traffic away from trucks and back onto water. In regions with constrained road capacity this could be a game-changer. In addition, smaller ships reduce infrastructure demands. They require less dredging, lighter infrastructure, and smaller loading facilities. Many of them might also be compatible with existing, underutilised waterways and terminals. Their lower investment requirements could make waterborne transport viable in places where large-vessel infrastructure would never be economically feasible. And there’s another angle: consolidation. Larger ships depend heavily on cargo consolidation, often creating bottlenecks and delays. CEMT II vessels, by contrast, make smaller-scale, more frequent deliveries possible. They align better with the needs of modern industry, where storage space is limited and delivery cycles are tight. CEMT Class II vessels offer precisely the kind of agility, accessibility, and flexibility that the freight sector needs if it is serious about shifting away from road transport. If supported by smart policy and infrastructure investment, these small ships could play a big role in steering the modal shift back on course.
Small, Flexible Vessels: Challenging the Dominance of Scale
The push toward smaller inland vessels isn’t just a matter of accessing underutilised waterways. It’s a strategic rethinking of how waterborne freight can compete with road transport. Traditional inland shipping has often leaned on the principle of economies of scaling up. Larger vessels transporting large volumes to minimise costs per ton. However, this model also introduces rigidity: large hubs poorly suited to today’s fast-moving and decentralised logistics landscape. In contrast, small and flexible vessels offer a different paradigm. They are capable of servicing a wide array of terminals, including shallow and narrow waterways that are currently neglected by larger vessels, or simple inaccessible. This increases the potential network coverage and connectivity of the inland waterway system, bringing ports closer to shippers, and reducing the reliance on road transport for first- and last-mile connections. Where a mega barge might need to wait days or even weeks to accumulate enough cargo, a smaller vessel can depart with less. Making it suitable for just-in-time supply chains that require reliability over volume. Smaller vessels have traditionally faced economic barriers. They are more costly to operate per unit of cargo and have historically lacked the automation and digitalisation needed to run efficiently. But this is changing. AUTOFLEX aims to offset these cost disadvantages through autonomy and energy innovation. Automated navigation, self-service terminals, and energy systems that generate and distribute power independently. Together, these innovations aim to reduce operational expenses (OPEX) and bring the cost-performance ratio of small vessels closer to that of trucks. Small vessels aren’t just a workaround—they’re potentially a blueprint for the future of inland shipping. By combining navigational versatility, lower infrastructure dependency, and tech-enabled efficiency, they offer a scalable way to unlock the hidden capacity of Europe’s waterways and revitalise modal shift efforts from the bottom up.
